Powell, Jonathan. 2012. Determinants of the Attempting and Outcome of Coups d'etat. Journal of Conflict Resolution 56(6):1017-1040.
Previous studies have attested to leaders ‘‘coup-proofing’’ their regimes by reducing the ability or disposition of their armies to seek their removal. The following article tests the utility of these efforts. ‘‘Structural’’ coup-proofing such as counterbalancing is expected to reduce the ability to organize a coup plot by creating substantial coordination obstacles to soldiers. Coup-proofing by spoiling militaries with organizational resources is expected to reduce the willingness to intervene. However,increased organizational resources are expected to increase the army’s capabilities,thereby increasing the likelihood of a coup’s success. The theory is empirically tested using a selection model with a global sample from 1961 to 2000. Findings suggest that both coup-proofing strategies are effective deterrents of coup activity and, more generally, that characteristics of the military appear to be far more important than economic influences on coups.