Thyne, Clayton, Jonathan Powell, Sarah Parrot, and Emily VanMeter. Forthcoming. "Even Generals Need Friends: How Domestic and International Reactions to Coups Influence Regime Survival." Journal of Conflict Resolution.
Signals from domestic and international actors have been shown to influence the likelihood of coup attempts. Coups remain difficult to predict, however, and consequently leave policymakers in a reactive stance. Unfortunately, little systematic work has assessed how these reactions influence long-term political outcomes. We begin to fill this gap by examining how reactions from domestic and international actors influence the duration of coup-born regimes. We argue that negative reactions will shorten leadership duration. We expect this effect to be stronger when domestic and international reactions align, and weaker when negative international reactions are balanced with positive domestic responses. Our tests use events data to capture domestic and international reactions to coups and newly-coded data on coup leadership to capture the outcome variable. Results indicate that international responses to coups have a profound influence on leadership tenure, with state reactions having the strongest effect during the Cold War and international organizations leading since.